The Big Podcast Episode 34: BYU Football Podcast

Breaking Down Oregon State and The Las Vegas Bowl...

Here is an outline of what hosts Jake Stowell and Mark Welling talked about in this week's podcast.

• Oregon State has everything that BYU struggles to contain. Fast, athletic, play-makers.
• James and Jacquizz Rodgers will cause problems for BYU's defense.
• Sean Canfield and Max Hall should be a epic senior quarterbacking matchup.
• BYU and Oregon State on paper are remarkably similar.
• How will BYU compete with Oregon State's speed?
• Will Brian Logan be the surprise hero of the Las Vegas Bowl?
• Did Pitta deserve to win the John Mackey Award?
• How big is the Las Vegas Bowl for the Mountain West Conference's aspiration gain an automatic BCS-bid.
• Predict the winner and final score of the Las Vegas Bowl.

Download here (Right click and save as) or listen with the player below.

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Las Vegas Bowl: BYU & Oregon State Is A Must See Non-BCS Bowl

BYU and Oregon State's similarities should make for an interesting game...

The December 22^nd Las Vegas Bowl Matchup of BYU and Oregon is one of the best non-BCS bowl games of the bowl season. The matchup of the Beavers and the Cougars has all the makings of an entertaining instant classic bowl game.

Both BYU and Oregon State are filled with offensive weapons. Both are teams with efficient senior quarterbacks, 1,000 yard rushers, and are loaded with a talented stable of pass catchers.

BYU ended the season ranked 14^th in the BCS and Oregon State finished 18^th; however, both teams had opportunities this season to go to bigger and better places.

Oregon State ended the season being a mere four points away from taking Oregon’s place in the Rose Bowl. BYU, after upsetting then highly ranked Oklahoma, was in National Championship conversations. That was until Florida State came to Provo and humiliated the Cougars on their home field.

Both teams have something left to prove in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Even though both BYU and Oregon State have 1,000 yard running back, both move the ball primarily through the air. The offensive stats for both teams are very similar to each other.

BYU is ranked 18^th in total offense averaging 437.08 yards per game, with 148.17 yards per game coming on the ground (ranked 60^th), and 288.92 yards per game coming through the air (ranked 12^th). Oregon State is ranked 28^th in total offense averaging 419.42 yards per game, with 144.17 yards per game rushing (ranked 64^th), and 275.25 yards per game passing (ranked 21^st).

Although BYU is higher ranked nationally, both teams’ numbers are virtually identical. The proportion of passing offense to rushing offense is especially shockingly similar.

On defense the similarities between the two schools continue. Both teams are much better at stopping the run than the pass. BYU is ranked 23^rd in rushing defense allowing 112 yards a game, but ranked 65^th in passing defense giving up 219.08 yards a game. Oregon State is ranked 25^th in rushing defense holding teams to 114.25 yards per game, and ranked 87^th in passing defense allowing 238.67 yards per game through the air.

Again BYU is ranked slightly higher nationally in both categories, but the actual numbers are remarkably similar for both teams.

The Las Vegas Bowl won’t be the first time both teams have played as Sam Boyd Stadium. Both teams faced off early in the season against UNLV. The Beavers needed a late field goal, after a game saving pass interference call, in order to best the Rebels 23-21. The Cougars on the other hand rolled to an easy 59-21 victory over UNLV, and had 611 yards of total offense.

While using the UNLV game as a comparison of the two schools is convenient and accepted in college football. The use of a common opponent is fallacious argument. BYU played UNLV after the Rebel’s were decimated by in-state rival Nevada. When the Rebels played BYU it was clear UNLV gave up on the game early in the second quarter.

On paper it looks like the Las Vegas Bowl should be a hard fought, and high scoring game between two offensive powers. Yet, for BYU this game is not only important to the school, but also to the Mountain West Conference’s claim to legitimacy.

Starting last summer the Mountain West Conference has made a big push claiming they play a high enough level of football to be considered a BCS caliber conference.

BYU is the second place team in the Mountain West Conference. In order to validate the Mountain West Conference’s claim to belong among the BCS conferences—BYU must beat Oregon State, a third place(after tie-breakers) Pac-10 team.

The Beavers come into the game with less pressure. They are the underdogs according to the rankings, and can play without the pressure of playing against the BCS system.

The game should be a fun one to watch. The Las Vegas Bowl pitting two ranked teams against each other, for the first time in the bowl’s history, is easily one of the three best non-BCS bowl matchups on paper—if not the very best non-BCS bowl matchup.

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USC’s Gift for BYU & Poinsettia Bowl Turns to Lump of Coal After Cal Loss

How the Cal loss affected BYU and USC...

For BYU it seemed as if the best place for BYU this bowl season would be the Poinsettia Bowl. The Las Vegas Bowl hinted that they didn’t want the Cougars this season, and BYU always had a better shot at getting a better bowl matchup in the Poinsettia Bowl. Both sides seemed happy not to be affiliated this season.

USC’s losing to Arizona really helped out BYU. It meant barring a Washington upset over a ranked Cal team, the Trojans would be playing BYU in San Diego.

Well former BYU quarterback Steve Sarkisian played the role of Grinch for BYU fans. Sark’s unranked Huskies beat #19 California 42-10.

If there is one sure thing in the PAC-10 this season it is not to assume anything is a sure thing.

This means USC finished fifth in the PAC-10 officially, and they are headed to the Las Vegas Bowl. To make matters worse for BYU fans they will most likely face off against Utah.

The only hope for BYU fans is that Vegas will reconsider selecting the Cougars for the Vegas Bowl now that they have a chance to pair them with USC.

The Vegas Bowl has only hinted that they will take Utah. Their reasoning for taking a lower ranked Utah over BYU was economic. BYU fans are known for being frugal, and for their lack of gambling. Utah fans would travel just as well to Vegas as their BYU counterparts. The Vegas Bowl also has hinted it wants to become something more than simply the “BYU Bowl.”

The reasoning of the Vegas Bowl Committee didn’t take into account the chance of getting such a marquee team from the PAC-10 as USC. The chance of putting together a BYU vs. USC matchup might be too good for the Vegas Bowl to resist.

BYU will be ranked in the top 15 going into whatever bowl game they play. USC could still be ranked after losing to Arizona this week, but even if they aren’t the USC brand will attract a national television audience.

BYU won’t find out what bowl game they are going to until after the BCS bowl selection tomorrow. Why? The BCS still hasn’t released BYU from consideration—even though there is no possible way BYU will get a BCS bowl bid.

If the Vegas Bowl selects Utah as it is rumored to tomorrow it will be a very bitter moment for BYU fans. The Utes will get the chance to take on the talented, although underperforming Trojans.

USC’s loss to Arizona really appeared to be an early Christmas present for BYU fans, but it really did turn to a lump of coal when California was upset by Washington.

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USC’s Loss to Arizona Possible Holiday Gift For BYU and Poinsettia Bowl

USC's poor end of year performance might help BYU have a good bowl matchup...

*Author’s Note: I wrote this article before the conclusion of the California vs. Washington game. With Washington upsetting California the bowl scenarios changed. Here is an updated bowl outlook for USC, Cal, and BYU. "USC’s Gift for BYU & Poinsettia Bowl Turns to Lump of Coal With Cal Loss.” *

If BYU gets a bid to the Poinsettia Bowl (as expected) then their bowl opponent could be USC.

Yes, that USC.

The Trojans are having a very disappointing year. A team which was supposed to compete for a national championship, and at the very least a BCS bowl bid. Yet, now USC (barring Cal being upset by Washington) will finish sixth in the PAC-10 and that means they will fall all the way down to the San Diego County Poinsettia Bowl.

The Las Vegas Bowl has already hinted that they are reluctant to select BYU for a fifth consecutive year. It was rumored that unless University of Utah was blown out in the Holy War, the Vegas Bowl Committee would select the Utes. This means a higher ranked BYU would be happily selected by an ecstatic Poinsettia Bowl Committee.

(The only reason that BYU’s bowl fate is still undecided is the BCS has not released the Cougars from consideration—even though there is no possible way BYU would get a BCS bowl bid.)

The chance for BYU to play USC to finish the 2009 season would be a great bookend for the Cougars to go along with BYU opening the season by playing Oklahoma.

Even with USC having an off year it would be a marquee matchup for a second tier bowl, like the Poinsettia Bowl. BYU will be ranked in the top 15, and USC might be able to stay in the top 25 (mainly thanks to the USC brand name and lazy poll voters not doing their homework).

There are still a few variables which could wreck this bowl matchup. Yet, the way the current bowl picture looks BYU might have hit the jackpot by being snubbed by the Las Vegas Bowl.

BYU would have little problem selling their fan base on heading down to San Diego regardless of their opponent. Thanks largely to BYU’s large fan base in the San Diego area. BYU playing USC would virtually guarantee a sellout in the Poinsettia Bowl regardless of the interest the USC fan base would have in traveling to the game.

The Trojans might have given BYU an early Christmas present if they fall to sixth place and the Poinsettia Bowl.

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Week 6 Mountain West Conference Power Rankings

Big week for Utah and the rest of the conference...

The PAC 10 finally got a win over the Mountain West Conference.  Now the Beavers will try to continue the trend this Thursday in Utah.  I wouldn' t be beating on a win for the Beavers against Utah, but Utah will have a chance this week to make a statement over a nationally recognized Oregon State team.  There is also a big game for Air Force this week as they take on Navy and try to win back the Commander and Chief Trophy.  UNLV will try and rebound against UNLV, and TCU will try to put their loss against Oklahoma behind them with the Aztecs coming to Fort Worth.  It will be interesting to see how national perception of the Mountain West Conference as conference play begins.  Here is the power poll for week 6:

1a) BYU - A good week for a bye.  BYU had some key injuries, and the week off gave the players time to heal.  Especially Pitta who sustained a shoulder injury, and needed some off time.  BYU was also able to move up in the national polls due to positive national press and teams in front of them losing.

1b) Utah - With the Utes playing and BYU off, the Utes had an opportunity to move into the top spot in the league.  Yet, The Utes needed a little bigger win on paper due to the lack of television coverage against Weber State. The score from last weekends win over Weber State doesn't indicate the scope of the victory for the Utes.   The Utes won the game easily; however, to move up in the power rankings how you win is taken into account.  The Utes have a chance to really make a statement against Oregon State this weekend.

3) TCU - Oklahoma embarrassed TCU, and proved that TCU has no offense.  Oklahoma's defense is pretty good, but TCU's offense wasn't able to do anything against the Sooners.  The Horned Frogs made mistakes that weren't influenced by the Sooners defense, and TCU's defense didn't have the power to slow down OU.  TCU is still a step above Air Force, but isn't on the same level as BYU and Utah.

4) Air Force - The bye week came at the right time for Air Force.  The cadets drop a close game at home against the Utes, and needed time to regroup for a big game against Navy.  Navy looks to be a formidable opponent for Air Force after a win over Wake Forest.  Plus, the Commander and Chief Trophy is the most important part of Air Force football.

5) UNLV - The Rebels loss to a Nevada was BIG!  Once again the Rebels start the season with some good wins and they are not able to continue to winning.  UNLV jumped out to an early lead, and then fell apart.  The defense was unable to stop Nevada's offense, and offense wasn't able to keep up in shoot out style football.  Rebels can't afford to loss two conference games this early in the season, and need a win over Colorado State.

6) New Mexico - The Lobos lose their starting quarterback for the year, but it may have really been a blessing for them.  New Mexico is now forced to highlight their talented running backs and move away from spreading the field.  The Lobos only passed for 55 yards.  While this worked against New Mexico State, and probably will work against Wyoming, when the Lobos face superior defenses (BYU + Utah) they are going to pay for being one tooled.

7)Colorado State - Playing California at Cal was a difficult task for the rebuilding Rams.  Yet, the Rams could really take a step forward in the rebuilding process with a win over UNLV this weekend.  The schedule doesn't get easy for CSU after the Rebels playing TCU, and then traveling to Utah.  If the Rams lose this weekend they could be looking at losing four games in a row.

8)San Diego State - They beat Idaho.  Put up the banner, the Aztecs got their win for the year.  "Mission Accomplished!"  The Aztecs will spend this week in the eighth spot before heading back to the bottom spot after playing TCU on the road.

9)Wyoming - Bowling Green  destroying Wyoming at home earns the Cowboys the bottom spot.  Joe Glenn watch has officially started to see how much longer he survives at Wyoming.

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Mark's Thoughts: The Economics of College Football

Why was the Oregon State win over USC so satisfying?

I was thinking about the USC vs Oregon State game for the hundredth time this morning, and smiled again thinking about it. I have never hated USC at any point; in fact, I think Pete Carroll is a very classy coach and Steve Sarkisian (former starting QB for the 1996 BYU Cotton Bowl team) is one of my favorite players ever. Yet, there was something about the game on Thursday night that was very satisfying to watch.

One element that made this game satisfying to watch is the current economic crisis that we face in America. Law makers are making the news circuit rounds telling citizens about a $700 billion bailout program for the banking system and Wall Street. Just hearing the number 700 billion is meaningless. Virtually no American can even comprehend that amount of money. Sure cable news stations will keep telling us how many things you could buy for that amount of money. (My favorite is the fact that for that amount of money every man woman and child in the US could have 2,000 McDonald's Apple Pies. I really want to meet the person that came up with that number, because they must love McDonald's.) Even with that money taken away from us (The American tax-payer) and given to corporations to buy their bad debt, there is no guarantee that it will fix the United States economy.

(Not to get too political, but...)
I view the current crisis as if we were out at sea on a coal driven steam ship during a hurricane, and the ship just ran out of coal. There needs to be a decision made on the ship for how we want to ride out the storm: do we start breaking down pieces of the ship to fuel the fire or do we let the engines stop and hope that everything takes care of itself. Either way, there is no guarantee that the ship will survive the storm, and either way it will take damage. Also, the facts remain that the Captain should have avoided putting us in the storm, brought more coal to power the ship, or better yet provided a more modern ship, than a coal-driven ship, for us. Yet, in the middle of the storm those facts don't matter. The simple choice remains destroy part of the ship to save the whole ship or keep the ship whole and let the storm play out. I would prefer to start breaking down the ship to feed the engine and give myself a fighting chance to survive the storm. It might not work, but I trust my own hands that I can see, rather than the "invisible hands" of nature. I believe that work will be rewarded, and that there are calmer seas on the ocean to be reached.

Even with the hope of the better days to come, the anger of the present situation remains. Why do these companies, who already have the most resources, need to get all the advantages in the current economic system?

USC is that elite corporation. USC is the AIG of college football. They are four deep at every position with high school stand-outs. They have future first round draft picks everywhere on their roster. They have two or three Heisman Trophy candidates every year. They are in a conference that fiscally rewards them regardless of whether they play well or if they don't. They are the national media darlings, before the game ESPN analysts were saying USC might be the best college football team ever. They gave Oregon State no chance to win the game, and were looking ahead to JANUARY and speculating about who USC would play in the National Championship Game. (ESPN's Herbstreit kills me when he won't speculate on "BCS Busters" until they have 8 or 9 wins (although he wasn't afraid to speculate about Fresno State or East Carolina "His BCS Busters") but Herbstreit is more than willing to speculate about the National Championship game in September...hypocrite!) With all of the advantages that USC has in college football today it was good to see them go down to Oregon State.

It was great to see Jacquizz Rodgers, the 5' 7" Oregon State running back, pile up 186 yards on the ground against the supposed best defense in the country. Oregon State coach Mike Riley said, "I guess they have about five first-round picks in their front seven, but our guys blocked them OK tonight."

To witness the Oregon State's defense shutout the Trojans in the first half and only giving up 10 yards to USC's talent running back Joe McKnight was really amazing.

Seeing a sea of orange storm the field and seeing the Trojans in their white uniforms to flee the field was extremely satisfying. Seeing this scene was especially satisfying due to the "Main Street" class that Oregon State fans had when interacting with the USC players. While I can't speak for every fan, the fans that passed USC quarterback Mark Sanchez on his way off the field stopped to share their thought with him. Instead of taunting Sanchez fans would pat his shoulder pads/his back and say things like, "good game," or "keep your head up." Whether these comments were sarcastic or not, it still shows the "Main Street" values and class of those fans.

Mark Sanchez's reaction going up the tunnel after the loss was the best example of the elite mentality at USC. In disgust over the outcome of the game he threw his mouth guard against the wall. That level of frustration is very understandable considering what had just happened to the Trojans on the field. Yet, the more interesting thing was the fact that Sanchez didn't even give a look back to see where his mouth guard landed. Instead an equipment manager raced around on the ground grabbing and caring for mouth guard, which must have been as fun for that equipment manager to pick up as someone's used gum. Sanchez didn't think about the consequences of his action, because he knew that it would be taken care of for him. That is what happens when you play at USC.

The fall of USC shows just how close the non-BCS schools are to the "Mighty Elite BCS" schools. Just as the current economic crisis shows how close the average American is to the elite businesses in the US. The national media will continue to prop up their flawed BCS system. The claims will still be made that the "Elite BCS Programs" would destroy any team that the non-BCS teams could offer; however, another lesson the current economic crisis has taught is just because something looks good on paper doesn't mean it means anything in reality. There is a reason games are decided on the field by players, and not by analysts in studios.

The USC's of the college football will get second chances. If USC puts this game behind them and wins the rest of their games they still have a chance to play in a BCS bowl game or even the National Championship Game. The national media will complement how they overcame adversity or giving excuses for the loss calling it a "fluke." Yet, the non-BCS schools don't get a governmental type hand out from the national media if things go wrong. In the current college football structure if a non-BCS school drops a game regardless of circumstances the best they can do is play in a lower bowl game, and most likely drop out of the polls completely.

That is why I smile thinking about the Beaver's victory on Thursday, because they rose up by themselves and proved everyone wrong. Just as Utah did in 2004, Boise State did against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, and Appalachian State did at the Big House last year; Oregon State proved they could stand up and do the unthinkable. Sure Oregon State is in the PAC-10, and they are part of the establishment that is building up the paper giants like USC; however, Oregon State is much closer to the non-BCS teams than they are to the BCS elite. In this time of crisis it is nice to smile and say, "GO BEAVERS!!!"

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