Mark's Thoughts: After BYU Loss...Now What Happens?

With the bar set so high with the expectation of a perfect season, now what happens after a loss?

The Horned Frogs kicked BYU's butts. It was that simple. TCU looked faster, stronger, and more focused during last nights game. A shell shocked BYU team left the field last night with their heads down. Now the important question needs to be raised, now what? This question can be asked to all members of the football team, coaching staff, and even fans. What is left to look forward to this football season?

The goal going into this season for BYU was to make it into a BCS bowl game. To accomplish that goal, BYU knew that they needed perfection. BYU decided to schedule down, and give themselves the best chance of going undefeated during the season. The advantage to scheduling down was the ability for BYU to win every game that they played, the disadvantage was that even one mistake during the season would be devastating.

After the loss to TCU does BYU still have a chance at going to a BCS bowl game? There is always a chance, but realistically NO. BYU is going to be hurt by the computer element of the BCS rankings; however, BYU was planning on the human polls counteracting the poor computer ranking. BYU is going to fall a long ways in the human polls this week. (Even having a chance of falling completely out of the polls altogether.) BYU has a long shot scenario of making it into the BCS that would roughly included: Utah beating TCU and winning out until the BYU game, all other undefeated non-BCS teams losing, BYU winning out and beating a top ten Utah team decisively to end the season, and the Big East/ACC continuing to struggle and their champions being unranked. In that scenario BYU would have a chance of climbing into the top 15 in the BCS ahead of a BCS champion giving themselves an automatic bid. This is a possibility, but it doesn't look likely.

Plus, could BYU handle a BCS bowl bid this year? BYU's secondary was exposed. The entire season people have wondered how BYU would fare when they faced a team that could pass the ball. Last night BYU finally ran into a team with the ability to consistently pass the ball. The majority of the time BYU's secondary wasn't within ten feet of the receivers making the catch, and TCU exploited Howard attacking him all night with more talented receivers. The real problem for BYU is TCU is not a great passing team. Before last nights game TCU's Dalton had ZERO passing touchdowns, but he had two against BYU. Dalton could have had more if TCU's receivers didn't drop easy touchdown throws. If BYU was facing one of the many quality passing attacks from the Big 12 the game would be ugly.

Also the offense has struggled the last 11 quarters. What happened to BYU's offense after the bye week? BYU had one good quarter against Utah State, struggled against New Mexico, and was shut down at TCU. The play calling has been terrible! It seems that BYU forgot that the best offense player on the field is Harvey Unga. After not running early against New Mexico, BYU went away from the run against TCU. With only 14 carries, Unga averaged almost four yards a carry, but was left on the shelf for most of the game. Hall has lost his rhythm, and has tried to force many throws in the last three games. Hall has four interceptions and two fumbles in the last three games. TCU was the first team that was able to apply pressure to Hall, and Hall looked unable to respond.

With a single loss BYU no longer controls their own destiny. TCU is now in the drivers seat for the conference championship. Utah, also controls their own destiny and would be in the conference drivers seat with a win over TCU. Bronco Mendenhall has the task of keeping his team from getting down on themselves, and to motivate them to reset their goals to winning another conference championship. While all the players have been saying the right things, that the conference championship has been the real goal and they don't worry about the BCS, it is clear that was merely a talking point. Of course all players knew they had a chance to play in a BCS bowl game, or knowing that they had a shot at playing in a BCS title game. Now Bronco needs to refocus them for the rest of the season.

Coach Mendenhall said all of the right things after the game. He acknowledge his own fault in getting the team ready to play, and took the blame off of the players and other members of the coaching staff. He now needs to sell the team that they need to prove this loss was a fluke. That by winning out the remainder of their games they have a chance to not only win another conference title, but they have a chance (however long the odd may be) of getting back into the BCS.

It might be easier to sell that message to the players than the fans of the team. BYU fans have been expecting a BCS run since BYU beat UCLA in the Vegas Bowl last year. Now BYU needs help to get back to the Vegas bowl. Even if BYU wins out, the Armed Forces Bowl might be the best bowl offer they receive. The Armed Forces Bowl is a big step down from the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl. With a very bad home schedule remaining, it will be interesting to see if some fans decide to stay home instead of gutting out the cold for the remainder of the season.

BYU should be able to win every game they have left on their schedule, but it won't be easy. UNLV next weekend could prove to be a trap game for BYU if they aren't recovered from the TCU beat down. UNLV has the talent to play with any team in the conference any weekend. I think Bronco will have BYU ready to play, but if not they could have their hands full with a good Rebels team. Even getting by the Rebels, BYU still has three tough road games. They play Colorado State, Air Force, and Utah all on the road, and none of those are going to be easy wins on the road.

Yet, when all is said and done, BYU just needs to beat Utah!