Predictions for every game in the Mountain West Men's Tournament...
Here is a link to the updated bracket:http://themwc.cstv.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/mwc/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2008-mbb-tourney-bracket
Here are the predictions for every game in the Mountain West Men's Tournament. Plus, my reasoning behind the picks.
Play-in-Game
Wednesday March 12, 2008
#8 Wyoming Cowboys vs. #9 Colorado State Rams
12PM MT
Why to watch? Colorado State is still looking for their first conference win of the season.
Prediction - Wyoming runs away with this game. Colorado State is lacking any size on the interior, and Wyoming has a better guard line than the Cowboys.
Chances for victory: Wyoming 95% Colorado St. 5% (and that is being generous)
Opening Round
Thursday March 13, 2008
#1 BYU Cougars vs Wyoming Cowboys #8
1PM MT
Why to watch? BYU is historically bad come tournament time. Do the Cougars look ready to make a splash.
Prediction - BYU should dominate this game. Wyoming played the night before, and they have no answer for Plaisted or Cummard.
Chances for victory: BYU 95% Wyoming 5%
#4 San Diego State Aztecs vs #5 Air Force Falcons
2:30PM MT
Why to watch? To see how SDSU will respond without Spain. See if Air Force continues to run out of gas come March.
Prediction - This is a rematch of the final game for both teams. They split the season series with the Falcons winning at home to end the season. SDSU hasn't been playing well since the loss of Kyle Spain, but should have enough in the tank to beat Air Force. The Falcons historically are terrible during tournament time.
Chances for victory: SDSU 65% Air Force 35%
#2 UNLV Rebels vs #7 TCU Horned Frogs
7PM MT
Why to watch? There really is no reason, this one should be the biggest blowout of the tournament.
Prediction - UNLV gets the huge advantage of playing on their home court. TCU's only conference road victory came at Colorado St. this year. The Rebel's already beat down the Horned Frogs on their home court this month. This game should be over early.
Chances for victory: UNLV 99% TCU 1%
#3 New Mexico Lobos vs #6 Utah Running Utes
9:30PM MT
Why to watch? This could be the best game of the tournament. It is too bad that they aren't getting the prime time television time that UNLV is receiving.
Prediction - The first game in their regular season series went to overtime, and the second a single point victory by the Lobos. It is a very interesting match up. The Lobos have no answer for Luke Nevill, but the Utes have no answer for J.R. Giddens. Both teams are playing for something; the Utes playing to save the season trying to get some kind of post season birth, and the Lobos playing to get into the NCAA tournament. This one is a toss up, but I give New Mexico a slight edge due to the momentum that they have coming into the tournament.
Chances for victory: New Mexico 52% Utah 48%
Second Round
March 14, 2008
#1 BYU Cougars vs #4 San Diego State Aztecs
7:30PM MT
Why to watch? BYU has won 13 of 14 games going into the conference tournament. The lone loss came at the hands of the Aztecs.
Prediction - BYU's last loss came at the hands of the Aztecs. It was a hard fought four point loss. The key stat to that game? FT attempts. BYU -6 SDSU 30. That is a huge differential! Playing on a neutral court should negate any home cooking. BYU should over power the Aztecs.
Chances for victory: BYU 70% SDSU 30%
#2 UNLV Rebels vs. #3 New Mexico Lobos
10:00PM MT
Why to watch? Two teams looking to punch their ticket to the big dance. If UNLV makes it to the finals they are a lock. The Lobos would need to either win the tournament or at least come close to get in. A loss here might prove to be what keeps the team out of the tournament.
Prediction - UNLV has home court. They have momentum. They have an easier game with TCU in the opening round. Yet, this is the first upset of the tournament. Giddens has been unstoppable in the two games these teams have played. UNLV has no answer for Giddens; however, the Lobos defense has been cranked up and can contain the attack of Adams and Darger.
Chances for victory: UNLV 50% New Mexico 50%
Championship
March 15, 2008
#1 BYU Cougars vs. #3 New Mexico Lobos
5PM MT
Why to watch? These are the two hottest teams in the conference. They would be playing on a neutral court. I would also match up the conference co-players of the year.
Prediction - The last time these two teams meet it took overtime to decide the winner. This would be a great game. New Mexico would have a hard time containing Plaisted. They do have the bodies to play a hack-a-Plaisted approach, making Trent hit free throws to win. Cummard got the better of Giddens in the first match up and Giddens the better of Cummard in the second. BYU is much better with the perimeter defense than New Mexico, and that might be the edge to the game. Both teams get a large portion of their scoring from behind the arch. BYU in a close victory.
Chances for victory: BYU 51% New Mexico 49%
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